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•Is the Economic Roller Coaster Finished?

It's been a wild roller coaster ride. For the past two years, Juab County's economic indicators ran the gamut from boom to apparent bust. However, two large projects&emdash;the Kern River Pipeline and the new power plant in Mona&emdash;have distorted the county's figures. And, power plant construction will dominate the numbers until its completion. At this point in time, indicators seem to portray a healthy economy.

Employment is up substantially from last year and sales experienced a double-digit increase. On the other hand, construction values remained virtually unchanged and unemployment remains stubbornly high. Plus, there is more to these indicators than meets the eye. So, read on...

•The Employment Also Rises

Kern River Pipeline construction shot Juab County's employment numbers through the roof in late 2002 only to generate a mirror-image dip in 2003. Then enters another major construction project&emdash;the power plant near Mona. Currently, that project is dominating employment expansion. Between the second quarters of 2002 and 2003, Juab County's employment increased almost 11 percent&emdash;an addition of 270 net new jobs. More than 70 percent of these new positions were added in the construction industry. In just one year, Juab County construction jobs doubled.

Nevertheless, even excluding construction gains, Juab County's nonfarm job totals would have grown by roughly 3 percent. In otherwords, the core labor market is growing at a nice, moderate rate. This isn't a particularly broadbased expansion. The healthcare/social services industry created most of the new nonconstruction positions&emdash;with a little help from manufacturing, retail trade, and local government.

One industry&emdash;other services&emdash;did show a notable decline as one particular company moved north. Otherwise, the industrial gains and losses fell in the "decimal dust" category.

Despite the spike in employment, Juab County's jobless rate refuses to decrease. In October, the county's unemployment rate stood at 6.7 percent&emdash;far above the state (4.8 percent) and national (5.5 percent) averages. In addition, unemployment in Juab County measures higher now than a year ago.

•Building Basically Unchanged

Cormpared to the second quarter of 2003, Juab County's second quarter 2004 construction values remained virtually unchanged. Okay, they did drop by less than 1 percent, but in the volatile world of construction permitting, that's essentially "no change." A decline in new home building virtually canceled the gain in new nonresidential activity during the second quarter. The value of new homes dropped by 20 percent, while nonresidential figures increased by about 30 percent. A major nonresidential remodeling project also kept total values from dropping too. low.

Even with the slight decrease in second quarter numbers, so far in 2004 (January to June), construction permitting is up slightly. Both new residential and new nonresidential permitting shared in this joy.

•Sales Rebound

During the second quarter of 2004, Juab County's gross taxable sales rebounded from its post-Kern River Pipeline slump. In comparison to 2003, second quarter 2004 sales are up by a whopping 17 percent. Business investment expenditures and wholesale trade sales appeared particularly strong. In addition, service industry sales experienced a 29-percent increase.

•The Road Ahead

You can count on the construction of the power plant to dominate employment numbers until (and even after) its completion. The best news? Even after excluding construction employment, the county seems to be back on its feet, creating jobs once more. However, the best of all worlds would see the expansion flow into other industries and nudge down the county's relatively high jobless rate.

•What's Up?

A boy's home in Mona can be built because the owner has agreed to meet all the restrictions imposed by the city council and is even willing to stipulate to a condition that if the home is to change, for any reason, the city be notified. The Nephi Times News.